En noviembre publiqué un artículo con las predicciones de Bill Gates sobre el futuro de la tecnología que hizo en 1999. Ahora os traigo las que Isaac Asimov hizo en 1983 sobre cómo sería el mundo en el año 2019, muy apropiado ahora que estamos a punto de entrar. Se trata de un artículo que escribió para el Toronto Star contestando a la pregunta «¿Cómo será el mundo en 2019?». El momento era totalmente idóneo coincidiendo con el 35 aniversario del libro 1984 de George Orwell. A continuación tenéis un fragmento del artículo que escribió Asimov y como podéis ver, da con muchísimas claves y en otras se desvía un poco… Pero nada desentona.
«Computerization will undoubtedly continue onward inevitably. Computers have already made themselves essential to the governments of the industrial nations, and to world industry: and it is now beginning to make itself comfortable in the home.
An essential side product, the mobile computerized object, or robot, is already flooding into industry and will, in the course of the next generation, penetrate the home.There is bound to be resistance to the march of the computers, but barring a successful Luddite revolution, which does not seem in the cards, the march will continue.The growing complexity of society will make it impossible to do without them, except by courting chaos; and those parts of the world that fall behind in this respect will suffer so obviously as a result that their ruling bodies will clamour for computerization as they now clamour for weapons.
The immediate effect of intensifying computerization will be, of course, to change utterly our work habits. This has happened before. Before the Industrial Revolution, the vast majority of humanity was engaged in agriculture and indirectly allied professions. After industrialization, the shift from the farm to the factory was rapid and painful. With computerization the new shift from the factory to something new will be still more rapid and in consequence, still more painful. It is not that computerization is going to mean fewer jobs as a whole, for technological advance has always, in the past, created more jobs than it has destroyed, and there is no reason to think that won’t be true now, too.
However, the jobs created are not identical with the jobs that have been destroyed, and in similar cases in the past the change has never been so radical.By 2019, then, it may well be that the nations will be getting along well enough to allow the planet to live under the faint semblance of a world government by co-operation, even though no one may admit its existence.Aside from these negative advances — the approaching defeat of overpopulation, pollution and militarism — there will be positive advances, too.Education, which must be revolutionized in the new world, will be revolutionized by the very agency that requires the revolution — the computer.Schools will undoubtedly still exist, but a good schoolteacher can do no better than to inspire curiosity which an interested student can then satisfy at home at the console of his computer outlet.There will be an opportunity finally for every youngster, and indeed, every person, to learn what he or she wants to learn. in his or her own time, at his or her own speed, in his or her own way.Education will become fun because it will bubble up from within and not be forced in from without.»
¿Qué os ha parecido? Podéis ver el artículo completo directamente en The Star.
📌 Post original (en inglés): These are Isaac Asimov’s 1983 predictions of the world in 2019